Predictions 2012: Keith Griffiths, global chairman of Aedas
There will be less construction activity in 2012 than 2011 as the effects of Europe spread to the international banking system. Countries which can internally fund development work will fare better but will still be affected by a loss of foreign investment. We should start to see a pick up at the end of the year. I see the best opportunities next year being in China, where we are well-embedded, and South America, which is not currently an Aedas market. China’s second- and third-tier cities should do well provided the government permits a reasonable degree of developer borrowing. Chinese developers have become very sophisticated and are now looking for a high level of in-country experience and design quality. The work will focus on masterplanning, retail and mixed commercial work. The other Asian economies will be good, but less buoyant than 2011. I do not expect much work from Europe for two or three years. London will be the one reasonably bright spot due to foreign investment. I don’t expect much from Russia either, though Kazakhstan may prove better. There will be continued sporadic construction activity in the Middle East but no return to the pre-2008 activity levels for a number of years. Projects will be more prosaic and very cost-conscious, focusing on providing for the real needs of the awakening communities. Australia will be very slow and made complicated by excessive competition, high exchange rates and a commodities bubble. Some US work might develop in the last quarter of 2012 but it will be quiet until then. |